MBS journée : Vente aux enchères du Conseil du Trésor, Minutes FOMC et NFP spéciale Reflections

We will come back to normal 'day' stuff from the road in a paragraph today because I spent most of my time to write about something that I would otherwise do.

There's not much to say on the bond markets that continue trading in a range (marked by yields 10 yr 2.66% on the high side and something. as less clearly defined at the foot  It could be as low as 2.40, but key to 2.57 and 2.47 levels would need to be broken first.  We are right on the mark 2.57 commercially beginning of one night or more.  Perhaps FOMC Minutes this afternoon offers some advice.  Apart from this and the auction of 13 10 yr Treasury, the calendar is usually empty.

Now for these "special NFP reflections."

There is a problem in the world of media.  As far as I know it grows since before I was born and will probably get worse before it gets better.  I am talking about sensationalism.

The more efficient we, as humans, get them to create and to digest the news, the less interesting the same old news becomes.  The problem is: it's still the same old new.  It will always (in general).

Very rarely is it a new preview glorious and scandalous in the world of finance and the economy, but the media has learned that you are more likely to pay attention if they pretend like every day is holder of a new and exciting glorious scandal.

It is search of sensations (and peddling) it is more beautiful.  Instead of "eat well, exercise and get enough sleep sleep", we are bombarded with"three weird stuff that will completely revolutionize your life" and others.

It is a thing for sites like Huffpost, etc to do so.  But it is irresponsible for sites in finance/econ apparently objective to do so.  I don't think even intentionally do most of them, it's just that there so much, so much, so many quite boring and unnecessary, data from away with major economic releases that very few people will really take the time to chew the number required to disprove what may seem viscerally tendentious allegations.

It is normally easier just to ignore those apparently biased claims, especially when they are at cross-purposes or otherwise, seems to appeal to our innate interest in scandal, conspiracy, and ideological inertia (our tendency to push back against new ideas or facts that go against our current beliefs).

For these reasons, I can understand why some analyses of jobs most recent report that characterizes as a "harbinger of the unexpected economic doom because of job losses in full-time creeping disguised as a beat solid data-rigging of the BLS evil manipulative because" has enjoyed immediate popularity!

After all, we love a good scandal.  We like to push back against the establishment.  It is easier to be a cynic unpleasant to be a consensus-builder.  It's fashionable to hate everything about the Government (it does perhaps not otherwise irrational, according to your definition of hatred).  And finally and most importantly, the resumption is not appearance as normal historical examples of collections, so anything that validates that feeling echoed with the ring of reality right out of the gate.

It turns out that there is a grey area with the NFP data.  There is almost always a sort of zone grey with almost any report.  In particular, the NFP is so colossal, that depends really just how hard you want to dig and what is your predisposition.  You can always find a way to prove your point if you have a point to prove!

In this case, I do not have a point to prove in respect to the goodness or badness of the data.  However, I have a almost the same problem with cheerleader girls and default conspiracy theorists.  The worst subjection of these two categories are those who follow their banner blindly, without even seeking to identify the counterpoint.

It's funny...  Post-SBL analysis I've seen usually has castigated ignorance of the mainstream, opinion of cheerleader.  But best I can tell, these opponents of the conspiracy theorist are the mainstream in this case!  When econo-17 blogs and the New York frickin' times is highlighting the 'but yes' in the workings of this report, it is therefore more avant-garde to do the same thing - regardless of how outraged, you manage to find (my apologies to friends and family with Apple products, but this is how I view the 'i' culture.)  It was counter-culture which was so popular that now Android/PC is counterculture.  For the record and in the spirit of the counterpoints, my wife and my colleagues say «Yes, because Apple stuff work!»  Perhaps they are right.  Maybe it depends on the person).

All this to say, I dug for the seedy belly of survey data that seems to have caused some outrage this week, and wouldn't you know, there are shades of gray!

In fact, the most interesting statistic which completely disarms the red flags of the full-time employment which is through June of last year, the net remuneration, unscaled, full time for the cohort '16 and greater' (that's everyone that they count) was 187 k.  Through June of this year, it was 677 k.  Read only fourteen times if desired.  Once more, there are more than three times as many full-time jobs created in the first half of 2014 vs. 2013 on a non-adjusted basis.

I'll post the rest of the raw tomorrow morning, but suffice it to say that the seasonal adjustments are haywire.  This is side-hilarious ironic in light of the conspiracy of the crowd generally test the idea of seasonal adjustments - claiming the cheerleader girls and crooked Government uses to manipulate numbers to look better than them - but their current findings are based on the same seasonal adjustments!

To be sure, I don't bring you a public conclusion to do battle with the findings of conspiracy - fair balance which explains how each side can be right depending on where they want to focus their attention.  The implied lesson is to make your trust wisely when it comes to form opinions on what is happening and do your own research when at all possible.

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