The housing market is a "crapshoot".

 

Karl "chip" case is an economist whose name is synonymous with real estate prices. He is the co-creator of of S & P/Case-Shiller home price indices much watched with Bob Shiller, who won the Nobel Prize in economics last year.

"You have much more negative vibrations in surveys of housing on the home ownership that we ever," case told CNNMoney. "I think that it is because people have washed down. They thought that the housing prices never go down. "This is just bull - you know what."

At the age of 67 cases still vibrates broadband data with the kind of enthusiasm that most people use to recite the words of the popular song on housing. For case, the key metrics to monitor is under construction, a measure of the residential new home construction.

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The housing starts figures were 'incredibly regular' 50 years, ranging between 1 million per month (annualized rate) the not so great time and 2 million during peak economic periods.

"Whenever it happened below 1 million in the past, it came right away," said case. Every time except the great recession.

Housing starts dropped below 500,000 for several months in 2009, an unthinkable level. And they have been slow to bounce back. They finally eked above the million in April, but it is not the case, if it's a real turning point.

He calls the market of the real estate 'segmented' these days. It is therefore more a guarantee of real estate prices will go across the country. This occurs only in certain places at certain times.

Karl 'Chip' case - the case of the Case-Shiller index - said only to buy a House for long distances. (Photo courtesy of Wellesley College).

On the demand side of the equation will also be key. Generation y will actually buy houses? Continue to foreign buyers?

"The Chinese come here with millions and billions of dollars, and they want to spend on assets that tend to hold their value. And at least the theory is that housing does. But it is far from what it was in 2004,"case notes.

The case given to first-time homebuyers are familiar to most. Make sure that you can afford the House and don't expect a quick profit.

"If you don't buy it for the long haul, not to buy because there is good chance that you'll have to attend some cycles down." "" But when he goes, it is very well", he said.

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Case studied intensively housing. But it is not only an academic. He owns a House too. He still remembered the House, bought in 1976 for $ 54,000, and sold years later for $240,000. Another home in the Boston area, he bought for about $ 375,000 is now worth 1 million.

But same case is not always call trends housing correctly, at least in the short term. The Commission considers that another property that he has lost almost half of its value during the economic downturn. For now, it is now.

Probably his best shot of property, however, is its place of permanent stationing at the federal reserve of Boston - which is close to Fenway Park. It has had since the end of the 1980s and uses it when he goes to see his beloved Boston Red Sox play.

First published: 7 July 2014: 6: 08 et