July 10, 2014: Mecklai Financial report on Rupee

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The big bang in Arun Jaitley's budget is that things will be done bottom up and it is more on execution rather than giving some grand proposals.

Chinese handset maker Xiaomi today unveiled its first handset, Mi 3, for the fiercely competitive Indian smartphone market, priced at Rs 14,999.

Jaitley announced a Rs 500 crore fund for farm price stabilization. He said the govt wanted agriculture to grow although weak rainfall was a concern.

Modi has more or less, achieved such a unity of command and control by getting his loyalist and confidant Amit Shah appointed as the BJP president.

As for his party, Jaitley is one of the principal trouble shooters, dispatched to various corners of the country to settle one dispute or the other.

In a marginal relief, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley increased the income tax exemption limit from Rs 2 lakh to Rs 2.5 lakh for citizens up to 60 yrs.

It is now the turn of Rajasthan’s camels to receive the benevolent concern of the state administration, alarmed by their fast declining population.

A new round of funding could see Flipkart being valued at $5 billion (Rs 30K crore) at least, almost a near-doubling of the company's valuation.

"The will be developed to accommodate the burgeoning number of people, otherwise, the existing cities would soon become unlivable," Jaitley said.

The govt said it will allocate Rs 500 crore for its 'Digital India' initiative to set up broadband network in villages and promote local softwares.

Congress wants to make the people aware of each failure of BJP government and how it has failed to fulfil its promises with a media offensive.

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DXY Index
CurrencyTrendExp. RangeSupportSpotSupportGreenback on Tuesday was tad lower making a low of 80.14 and closed near the day?s low at 80.17 against its rivals on the back of mixed economic data released.JOLTS Job openings marked 4.64m against 4.46m earlier and was above market expectation of 4.54m. Such a rise is job opening was not seen in past 7 years, but hiring dipped in May on the back of mismatch between skills of unemployed Americans and those required by employers which pressured dollar.NFIB small business index registered 95 points against 96 points earlier, below the market expectations of 97 points. Labour market and Job creation were the only two indexes which improved but the output remain unchanged.US Dollar lost ground after the Minneapolis Federal Reserve President, Narayana Kocherlakota stated that he expects the inflation rate in the world's largest economy to stay below the central bank's target for more years, may be till 2018. He clarified that the central bank is in no rush to increase the short term interest rates, as the economy still has a long way to go.US equity Benchmark Dow Jones was down yesterday by 0.70% closing below 17000 at 16906, S&P500 was down by 0.70% at 1963 and NASDAQ was down by 1.37% ending at 4391.Today investors and traders will watch the FED minutes closely to get hint for interest rate hike which will be announced, Consumer credit m/m is set to release along with 10 year Bond auction.DXY: Greenback, after facing the resistance of 50% retracement of the previous fall from 81.02-79.73 prices gave a confirmation on the second day by closing below its previous day low thus confirming it is forming a lower high. Today in the early morning session prices breached its yesterday low which indicates that it has resumed its downtrend. Well supported by RSI which has moved below the median of 50 and MACD which is showing sell signal. The immediate support comes to 80.05; breach of this level will accelerate selling pressure which will take prices lower till 79.93 in near term.

USDINR
CurrencyTrendExp. RangeSupportSpotSupport

The local unit opened gap down at 59.87 after having closed at 59.78 levels yesterday. With the Sensex falling almost 500 points yesterday, impact on the rupee was a given. In addition, an oil payment tranche of $ 550 million to Iran was also completed yesterday. Expectations on the general budget as well as likely RBI intervention will keep trading ranged between 59.50 ? 60.00 levels today .US stocks and bond yields eased substantially ahead of the earnings season and the FOMC Minutes due today. Comments by Narayanan Kocherlakota put futher pressure on yields when he said that the dip in the unemployement rate was welcome but the labour market had a long way to go before it reached Fed?s goals. He indicated that he saw no inflationary bias in the economy in the near term and believed inflation would come in at less than the Fed?s target of 2.00 per cent. In short, what he meant presumably wa that the Fed was at status quo , despite the market expectation of a more hawkish outlook.In the Eurozone, woes continued as Germany?s surplus came in stronger at 18.8 B versus an expectation of 16.2 B. The bad news was that imports were sharply lower falling 3.4% month on month, indicating a fall in economic activity in the country. In UK too, there was an unusual dip in manufacturing and industrial productionwith manufacturing output falling 1.3% (mom) and industrial production falling 0.7%.Asian Markets are all down as are Asian currencies, probably beaten down by the correction in the US stock markets and a dip in the Chinese CPI which came in at 2.3% vis a vis an expectation of 2.4% . In early trade, the Sensex is flat, with a 10 point gain and Nifty is trading at 7622 levels.In domestic news, the Rail Budget, despite the reaction from stock markets, was analysed as having no adverse impact on the fiscal deficit, while increasing facilities and infrastructure available to the customer. However the proposals seemed very broad , with no indication of details and timelines of implementation. Credit Suisse indicated that since the options before the FM are so limited, it is possibly that the general budget too would strike a similar note and be either a dissapointment or a non event for stock markets.Technically speaking, USDINR is facing the resistance of 60.00 levels as it opened today at 59.92 but failed to move above 60.00 levels. The major resistance comes to 60.20-60.25 where cluster of resistances are placed. The immediate support for this pair comes to 59.65 followed by 59.50 where the lower Bollinger band is placed. RSI is giving sell signal along with MACD which continue to give negative sign.
EURUSD
CurrencyTrendExp. RangeSupportSpotSupportThe single currency failed to go beyond the previous day low and closed near the days high at 1.3616 above the psychological level of 1.3600 on the back of strong German trade balance.Yesterday, Bank of Spain Head and ECB Governing Council Member, Luis Maria Linde opined that the inflation rate in the zone would remain far from the target of central bank of 2% and the deflation will continue exist. He further added that the recent macro economic data from Spain pointed to a healthy recovery.The French Budget Government balance -64.3B against 64.2 earlier, while trade balance marks -4.9b against -4.1b earlier. French economy grew only 0.2 percent in the second quarter after stalling in the first three months of the year, while the trade deficit widened in May from the previous month.European Bourses, CAC 40 and DAX both were down on Tuesday mirroring the negative global cues by 1.46% and 1.37% ending at 4342 and 9772, today both opened on a positive note up by 0.23% and 0.06% respectivelyNo data to be released in Euro zone today and as such euro will take cues from US markets.EUR/USD: The pair bounced from the level of 61.8% retracement if the previous rise from 1.3500-1.3700 and it is on the brink to form 3 while solider pattern (candlestick) which indicates that it has formed a bottom. The immediate support for the pair comes to 1.3600 followed by 1.3575 and the resistance will be 1.3646. RSI and MACD both look strong and it is exhibiting positive signals.

GBPUSD
CurrencyTrendExp. RangeSupportSpotSupport

Cable unchanged yesterday at 1.7132 but during the day it slipped and tested the level of 1.0780 and closed near the opening level. The pair did not slipped despite of weak economic data which was released yesterday.On economic front, manufacturing production m/m was down by -1.3% in May against 0.3% earlier, below market expectations of 0.4%. This was the biggest fall since January 2013 showing some impact on the pair but it eroded all the losses later.Total production decreased by 0.7% between April 2014 and May 2014. Manufacturing was the largest contributor, decreasing by 1.3%.The main contributors to decrease the manufacturing production was metals & metal products; basic pharmaceutical products & pharmaceutical preparations; and computer, electronic & optical products.UK?s NISER GDP estimates for 3 m at 0.9% against 0.7% which was revised from 0.9% as estimates imply that the UK economy is now 3.2 per cent larger than in the same period last year.Today BRC shop price index y/y dipped to -1.8% against -1.4% earlier which was the deepest level of deflation since December 2006.The FTSE 100 was down by 1.26% closing at 6738 on amid weak US cues. Today the index opened tad lower by 0.07% at 6733.Later today, Halifax HPI m/m is the only economic data to be released which will guide pound for the day.GBP/USD: Pound continues to trade forming a higher high and higher low formation, where prices are consolidating near the support of the channel. The level of 1.7080 will play as a crucial support for the pair and the resistance comes to 1.7183. Momentum oscillators show positive signs as there is no sign of slow down in momentum.

Other Markets

India?s 10-year G-Sec -.Ten-year benchmark yield is steady at 8.72% with significant buying support at higher levels. PIMCO has indicated that with spreads narrowing in developed markets, emerging market bonds, especially in stable Asia, will attract a lot more interest. In the last week, foreign funds have exhausted 51% of their limit to invest in Indian bonds. Corporate bond issues are also up with ONGC completing a $ 2 billion bond issue this week. However, the upcoming budget and the fiscal deficit target it lays down is likely to determine direction of yields in the near term The RBI completed auctions of 4/5/ 10 year state development loans of nine state governments of Rs 8500 crore at cut yields ranging from 8.90 ? 9.00% yesterday. It also completed an auction of Rs 21,786 crore at 8.00% and a one day reverse rep auction of Rs 2,106 at 7.00% under the Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) today.US Treasury Market -: The ten-year benchmark yield retraced further to 2.56% cautious ahead of the earnings season and the release of the minutes of the Fed meeting today. Remarks by Fed member Narayanan Kocherlakota, on the lack of inflationary bias in the economy also kept yields presurred. Treasuries fell for the first time in three days as investors prepared to bid at a $21 billion government auction of 10-year notes today. Investors will also look to comments from Mario Draghi on willingness to move to QE in Eurozone, which would drive demand for higher yielding US treasuries.Crude Oil-: Prices of WTI Crude is steady at $ 103.54 as markets anticipate that US stockpiles dropped sharply by 2.5 million barrels last week, which will be confirmed by the end of day today. In contrast, Brent dropped the most in two months yesterday to trade at $108. 83 yesterday, decreasing almost 1.2 per cent. Iraq supply fears have receded strongly, since the rebels have not occupied any new territory, though fighting continues.Gold-: Gold was marginally stronger at $ 1320 as the market contemplated whether they would be hit by higher borrowing costs in the US, after Wednesday?s release of FOMC minutes. A dovish mode from Fed could benefit Gold, as the worldwide search for yields adds to its allure, even as the VIX, a measure of volatility expectations from investors jumped to 11.98 moving up 5.7 percent. Technically, Gold seems to be poised for an up move, as we have been indicating over the last week. (See our Graph of the day on July 8, 2014 and July 1, 2014).DON'T MISSany stories, follow us on TwitterFollow

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July 9, 2014: Mecklai Financial report on Rupee

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July 9, 2014: Mecklai Financial report on Rupee - Economic Times You are here: Home>Collections>Central BankJuly 9, 2014: Mecklai Financial report on RupeeJul 9, 2014, 02.54PM ISTTags:volatility|stocks|settlement option|ONGC|net worth|money market|markets|liquidity|labour market|Insurability|Inflation|Gold|endorsements|deflation|Crude oil|Central Bank of|Capacity Cost|benchmark

DXY Index
Currency Trend Exp. Range Support Spot Support Weekly Fortnightly S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 DXY Index Up Down 79.74-80.78 79.74 79.93 80.05 80.18 80.5 80.66 80.78

Greenback on Tuesday was tad lower making a low of 80.14 and closed near the day?s low at 80.17 against its rivals on the back of mixed economic data released. JOLTS Job openings marked 4.64m against 4.46m earlier and was above market expectation of 4.54m. Such a rise is job opening was not seen in past 7 years, but hiring dipped in May on the back of mismatch between skills of unemployed Americans and those required by employers which pressured dollar. NFIB small business index registered 95 points against 96 points earlier, below the market expectations of 97 points. Labour market and Job creation were the only two indexes which improved but the output remain unchanged. US Dollar lost ground after the Minneapolis Federal Reserve President, Narayana Kocherlakota stated that he expects the inflation rate in the world's largest economy to stay below the central bank's target for more years, may be till 2018. He clarified that the central bank is in no rush to increase the short term interest rates, as the economy still has a long way to go. US equity Benchmark Dow Jones was down yesterday by 0.70% closing below 17000 at 16906, S&P500 was down by 0.70% at 1963 and NASDAQ was down by 1.37% ending at 4391. Today investors and traders will watch the FED minutes closely to get hint for interest rate hike which will be announced, Consumer credit m/m is set to release along with 10 year Bond auction. DXY: Greenback, after facing the resistance of 50% retracement of the previous fall from 81.02-79.73 prices gave a confirmation on the second day by closing below its previous day low thus confirming it is forming a lower high. Today in the early morning session prices breached its yesterday low which indicates that it has resumed its downtrend. Well supported by RSI which has moved below the median of 50 and MACD which is showing sell signal. The immediate support comes to 80.05; breach of this level will accelerate selling pressure which will take prices lower till 79.93 in near term.

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USDINR
Currency Trend Exp. Range Support Spot Support Weekly Fortnightly S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 USDINR Neutral Neutral 59.40-60.03 59.4 59.5 59.6 59.7 59.84 59.95 60.03

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April 7, 2010July 8, 2014: Mecklai Financial report on Rupee
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