Mortgage Rates Unchanged to Slightly Higher

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Mortgage rates were just barely higher today on average.  The movement was so small that several lenders were actually unchanged or slightly better.  This is consistent with an ongoing trend of incredibly small day-to-day changes in rates.  The range has been narrow enough to keep the most prevalently quoted top-tier rate between 4.125% and 4.25% for conforming, 30yr fixed loans.  The market is currently fairly well split between the two depending on the lender and scenario.

Economic data is historically one of the most important considerations for interest rates.  Stronger data tends to push rates higher and vice versa.  Although the impact is diminished in the current era of narrow ranges, the connection is still observable on most occasions. 

Today, for instance, weaker manufacturing data gave a boost to the bonds that underlie mortgage rates early in the day.  Later in the morning, stronger homebuilder sentiment pushed back in the other direction.  The impacts were almost too faint to be detected in both cases.  Tomorrow brings a more robust line-up of economic data.  This could do more to cause movement in rates.

Loan Originator Perspective

"Continued relative calmness in the mortgage markets this week lends itself to complacency. However, calm in the mortgage markets is often followed quickly with volatility so borrowers on a short time frame to closing (within 15 days) should seriously consider locking. For the time being, longer closing periods may lend themselves to a wait and see position looking for the improved pricing one gets with a shorter lock period. Still, be closely connected to your loan officer and ready to make a quick lock decision as things can change for the worse rather quickly." -Hugh W. Page, Sen. Mortgage Consultant, Capital Partners Mortgage

"If you're looking to lock in the next day or two, I still favor locking at this time. There's still more risk to the upside than likelihood of a move lower, without much data on the horizon. Next week has more significant data that could move the market, then what remains in the next two days of this one." -Brent Borcherding, www.brentborcherding.com

"It appears 2.57 is still holding strong as support as yields hit this level earlier today and bounced off just like it had done yesterday. We do get some pretty significant data in the morning which could move the markets in either direction. With lender pricing the same today as yesterday, I think cautiously floating over night is the way to go, as long as you can tolerate the risk." -Victor Burek, Open Mortgage

"Right now, I favor locking at application to avoid any chance of rates spiking higher. Renegotiation options exist so why take a chance on higher rates causing a headache." -Michael Owens, VP of Mortgage Lending at Guaranteed Rate, Inc.

Today's Best-Execution Rates

30YR FIXED - 4.125- 4.25%
FHA/VA - 3.75%
15 YEAR FIXED -  3.375%
5 YEAR ARMS -  3.0-3.50% depending on the lender

Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

The hallmark of 2014 so far has been a disconcertingly narrow range in rates.  Too many market participants bet on rates going higher in 2014, and markets have punished that imbalance with a paradoxical move lower. As of June, rates were officially lower year-over-year, but that's due to rates' path higher in 2013.  The current path in 2014 remains sideways.  European markets continue to play a nagging role in the background, generally helping rates in the US remain lower than they otherwise might be.  From a wider point of view, we're in limbo, waiting for the first significant move away from the narrow range.  A rally into late May stood a chance to act as this break, but rates have since returned to what were previously the lower limits of the 2014 range. As always, please keep in mind that the rates discussed generally refer to what we've termed 'best-execution' (that is, the most frequently quoted, conforming, 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers, based not only on the outright price, but also 'bang-for-the-buck.'  Generally speaking, our best-execution rate tends to connote no origination or discount points--though this can vary--and tends to predict Freddie Mac's weekly survey with high accuracy.  It's safe to assume that our best-ex rate is the more timely and accurate of the two due to Freddie's once-a-week polling method).  Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

Mortgage Rates Continue Higher After Yellen Testimony

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Mortgage rates moved slightly higher again today.  Fed Chair Janet Yellen provided her semi-annual testimony to the Senate Banking Committee this morning.  The financial markets that underlie mortgage rates saw quite a bit of volatility during the testimony, but it ultimately canceled itself out.  This left the secondary mortgage market in roughly the same position as it was earlier in the morning.  Unfortunately, that position was a bit weaker than yesterday's latest levels which were, themselves, the weakest of the day. 

In other words, after the smoke cleared, today's market movements confirmed yesterday's weakness, pushing rates higher.  That said, none of the recent movement in mortgage rates could be considered "fast-paced."  Today's increase just barely begins pushing the boundary between 4.25% and 4.125%.  By the end of last week 4.125% was more prevalent as a conforming 30yr fixed rate quote for the best possible scenarios.  After these past two days of weakness, 4.25% is more prevalent than it was, but hasn't taken the spotlight yet.

Loan Originator Perspective

"We're still close to recent lows, and without at any compelling data on the horizon, I think locking is a very conservative decision--an approach that I would very likely embrace. Until we make a decided move out of this range, I'd float at the highs and lock at the lows." -Brent Borcherding, www.brentborcherding.com

"If you can tolerate the risk, I think floating all loans overnight is the way to go. It appears we have some good support just overhead on the benchmark 10 year note at 2.57. Float the highs, lock the lows. " -Victor Burek, Open Mortgage

Today's Best-Execution Rates

30YR FIXED - 4.125- 4.25%
FHA/VA - 3.75%
15 YEAR FIXED -  3.375%
5 YEAR ARMS -  3.0-3.50% depending on the lender

Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

The hallmark of 2014 so far has been a disconcertingly narrow range in rates.  Too many market participants bet on rates going higher in 2014, and markets have punished that imbalance with a paradoxical move lower. As of June, rates were officially lower year-over-year, but that's due to rates' path higher in 2013.  The current path in 2014 remains sideways.  European markets continue to play a nagging role in the background, generally helping rates in the US remain lower than they otherwise might be.  From a wider point of view, we're in limbo, waiting for the first significant move away from the narrow range.  A rally into late May stood a chance to act as this break, but rates have since returned to what were previously the lower limits of the 2014 range. As always, please keep in mind that the rates discussed generally refer to what we've termed 'best-execution' (that is, the most frequently quoted, conforming, 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers, based not only on the outright price, but also 'bang-for-the-buck.'  Generally speaking, our best-execution rate tends to connote no origination or discount points--though this can vary--and tends to predict Freddie Mac's weekly survey with high accuracy.  It's safe to assume that our best-ex rate is the more timely and accurate of the two due to Freddie's once-a-week polling method).  Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

Mortgage Rates Unchanged to Slightly Higher

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Mortgage rates were just barely higher today on average.  The movement was so small that several lenders were actually unchanged or slightly better.  This is consistent with an ongoing trend of incredibly small day-to-day changes in rates.  The range has been narrow enough to keep the most prevalently quoted top-tier rate between 4.125% and 4.25% for conforming, 30yr fixed loans.  The market is currently fairly well split between the two depending on the lender and scenario.

Economic data is historically one of the most important considerations for interest rates.  Stronger data tends to push rates higher and vice versa.  Although the impact is diminished in the current era of narrow ranges, the connection is still observable on most occasions. 

Today, for instance, weaker manufacturing data gave a boost to the bonds that underlie mortgage rates early in the day.  Later in the morning, stronger homebuilder sentiment pushed back in the other direction.  The impacts were almost too faint to be detected in both cases.  Tomorrow brings a more robust line-up of economic data.  This could do more to cause movement in rates.

Loan Originator Perspective

"Continued relative calmness in the mortgage markets this week lends itself to complacency. However, calm in the mortgage markets is often followed quickly with volatility so borrowers on a short time frame to closing (within 15 days) should seriously consider locking. For the time being, longer closing periods may lend themselves to a wait and see position looking for the improved pricing one gets with a shorter lock period. Still, be closely connected to your loan officer and ready to make a quick lock decision as things can change for the worse rather quickly." -Hugh W. Page, Sen. Mortgage Consultant, Capital Partners Mortgage

"If you're looking to lock in the next day or two, I still favor locking at this time. There's still more risk to the upside than likelihood of a move lower, without much data on the horizon. Next week has more significant data that could move the market, then what remains in the next two days of this one." -Brent Borcherding, www.brentborcherding.com

"It appears 2.57 is still holding strong as support as yields hit this level earlier today and bounced off just like it had done yesterday. We do get some pretty significant data in the morning which could move the markets in either direction. With lender pricing the same today as yesterday, I think cautiously floating over night is the way to go, as long as you can tolerate the risk." -Victor Burek, Open Mortgage

"Right now, I favor locking at application to avoid any chance of rates spiking higher. Renegotiation options exist so why take a chance on higher rates causing a headache." -Michael Owens, VP of Mortgage Lending at Guaranteed Rate, Inc.

Today's Best-Execution Rates

30YR FIXED - 4.125- 4.25%
FHA/VA - 3.75%
15 YEAR FIXED -  3.375%
5 YEAR ARMS -  3.0-3.50% depending on the lender

Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

The hallmark of 2014 so far has been a disconcertingly narrow range in rates.  Too many market participants bet on rates going higher in 2014, and markets have punished that imbalance with a paradoxical move lower. As of June, rates were officially lower year-over-year, but that's due to rates' path higher in 2013.  The current path in 2014 remains sideways.  European markets continue to play a nagging role in the background, generally helping rates in the US remain lower than they otherwise might be.  From a wider point of view, we're in limbo, waiting for the first significant move away from the narrow range.  A rally into late May stood a chance to act as this break, but rates have since returned to what were previously the lower limits of the 2014 range. As always, please keep in mind that the rates discussed generally refer to what we've termed 'best-execution' (that is, the most frequently quoted, conforming, 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers, based not only on the outright price, but also 'bang-for-the-buck.'  Generally speaking, our best-execution rate tends to connote no origination or discount points--though this can vary--and tends to predict Freddie Mac's weekly survey with high accuracy.  It's safe to assume that our best-ex rate is the more timely and accurate of the two due to Freddie's once-a-week polling method).  Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

Mortgage Rates Continue Higher After Yellen Testimony

AppId is over the quota
AppId is over the quota

Mortgage rates moved slightly higher again today.  Fed Chair Janet Yellen provided her semi-annual testimony to the Senate Banking Committee this morning.  The financial markets that underlie mortgage rates saw quite a bit of volatility during the testimony, but it ultimately canceled itself out.  This left the secondary mortgage market in roughly the same position as it was earlier in the morning.  Unfortunately, that position was a bit weaker than yesterday's latest levels which were, themselves, the weakest of the day. 

In other words, after the smoke cleared, today's market movements confirmed yesterday's weakness, pushing rates higher.  That said, none of the recent movement in mortgage rates could be considered "fast-paced."  Today's increase just barely begins pushing the boundary between 4.25% and 4.125%.  By the end of last week 4.125% was more prevalent as a conforming 30yr fixed rate quote for the best possible scenarios.  After these past two days of weakness, 4.25% is more prevalent than it was, but hasn't taken the spotlight yet.

Loan Originator Perspective

"We're still close to recent lows, and without at any compelling data on the horizon, I think locking is a very conservative decision--an approach that I would very likely embrace. Until we make a decided move out of this range, I'd float at the highs and lock at the lows." -Brent Borcherding, www.brentborcherding.com

"If you can tolerate the risk, I think floating all loans overnight is the way to go. It appears we have some good support just overhead on the benchmark 10 year note at 2.57. Float the highs, lock the lows. " -Victor Burek, Open Mortgage

Today's Best-Execution Rates

30YR FIXED - 4.125- 4.25%
FHA/VA - 3.75%
15 YEAR FIXED -  3.375%
5 YEAR ARMS -  3.0-3.50% depending on the lender

Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

The hallmark of 2014 so far has been a disconcertingly narrow range in rates.  Too many market participants bet on rates going higher in 2014, and markets have punished that imbalance with a paradoxical move lower. As of June, rates were officially lower year-over-year, but that's due to rates' path higher in 2013.  The current path in 2014 remains sideways.  European markets continue to play a nagging role in the background, generally helping rates in the US remain lower than they otherwise might be.  From a wider point of view, we're in limbo, waiting for the first significant move away from the narrow range.  A rally into late May stood a chance to act as this break, but rates have since returned to what were previously the lower limits of the 2014 range. As always, please keep in mind that the rates discussed generally refer to what we've termed 'best-execution' (that is, the most frequently quoted, conforming, 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers, based not only on the outright price, but also 'bang-for-the-buck.'  Generally speaking, our best-execution rate tends to connote no origination or discount points--though this can vary--and tends to predict Freddie Mac's weekly survey with high accuracy.  It's safe to assume that our best-ex rate is the more timely and accurate of the two due to Freddie's once-a-week polling method).  Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

Mortgage rates unchanged and slightly higher

Mortgage rates were barely today highest average.  The movement was so small that several lenders have been effectively unchanged or a little better.  This is consistent with a persistent tendency to incredibly small daily variations in rates.  The range was narrow enough to keep the most commonly cited rate of high-level 4,125% and 4.25% for 30 year fixed conforming loans.  The market is currently fairly evenly distributed between the two depending on the lender and the scenario.

Economic data are historically one of the most important interest rate considerations.  Data strongest tend to push higher and vice versa.  Although the impact is reduced in the current era of narrow ranges, the connection is still observable on most occasions.

Today, for example, weaker manufacturing data gave a boost of ties that underpin mortgage rates earlier in the day.  Later in the morning, the strongest sense of home builders pushed in the other direction.  The impacts were almost too low to be detected in both cases.  Tomorrow brings a more robust line-up of economic data.  This could do more to cause a movement of rates.

Creative lending Perspective

"Is always calm on the markets of mortgage credit this week lends itself to complacency. However, calm in the mortgage credit markets is often followed quickly with volatility so borrowers on a short period of time to close (within 15 days) should seriously consider locking. For now, more extended periods of closure can lend themselves to a wait and see position looking for improved pricing is obtained with a shorter period of the lock. Still, remain closely linked to your agent credit and ready to make a decision quick lock as things may change for the worse quite quickly. "-Hugh W. Page, Consultant mortgage Sen, Capital mortgage partners "

"If you're looking to lock the next day or two, I still support locking at this time. There is still more upside risk the probability of a move lower, without much data on the horizon. "Next week gave more significant that could move the market, then what remains in the next two days of it."-Brent Borcherding, www.brentborcherding.com

"It seems 2.57 is always held strong as support as performance has reached this level earlier today and bounced off everything as she did yesterday." We receive enough meaningful data in the morning which could move the market in either direction. Lender the same pricing today as yesterday, I believe that carefully floating over night is the way to go, as long as you can tolerate the risk."-Victor Burek, open mortgage

"Right now, I am in favour of blocking the application to avoid any risk of the higher rate of fortification." Renegotiation of options exist then why take a chance on higher rates, causing a headache."-Michael Owens, VP of mortgages at Guaranteed Rate, Inc.

Best performance of today rate

30 year fixed - 4,125 to 4.25%
FHA / VA - 3.75%
15 YEARS FIXED - 3.375%
5 year arm - 3.0 - 3, 50% depending on the lender

Considerations of course/float lock

The hallmark of 2014 so far has been a disconcerting range restricted in the tariffs.  Too many market players bet on rates increasing them in 2014, and markets have sanctioned this imbalance with a less paradoxical movement. From June, the rates were officially lower-year, but it is because of the trajectory of the rates higher in 2013.  The current path in 2014 remains on the side.  European markets continue to play a role in the background, haunting generally helping rates in the United States remain lower than otherwise, they could be.  From a broader point of view, we are in limbo, wait the first important move away from close range.  A rally in late May was a chance to act as this break, but rates have since returned to what were previously the lower limits of the range of 2014. As always, please keep in mind that rates discussed generally relates to what we have called 'best performance' (otherwise said, the most frequently cited, compliant, 30 year fixed rates for borrowers from high level, only on the price of pure and simple non-based, but also 'bang-for-the-buck.'  In General, our best execution rate tends to connote no departure or discount points - even if this may vary - and tends to predict the weekly Freddie Mac survey with great precision.  It is reasonable to assume that our rate of best-ex is the fastest and most accurate of the two due to the method of voting once per week from Freddie).  Coo, Mortgage News Daily / MBS living a former writer, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, its focus shifted increasingly towards relating MBS and the broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher, Ending Last Week's Streak

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Mortgage rates rose modestly today, ending last week's streak of 5 days without an increase.  The movement wasn't enough to unseat 4.125% as the most prevalently-quoted conforming 30yr fixed rate for top tier scenarios.  That means today's changes came in the form of increased closing costs for the same rates as Friday.  Expressed in terms of rates, the hike is equivalent to 0.03%.

As we discussed on Friday, the sorts of winning streaks seen last week become progressively less likely to continue after the 5-day mark, even if the pull-back is only temporary.  Whether or not today's pull-back proves to be temporary will likely have something to do with tomorrow's significant events.  Earlier in the morning, the Retail Sales report could cause some movement in the bond markets that most directly affect mortgage rates. 

The main event will be Fed Chair Yellen's first day of congressional testimony.  If markets are still feeling negative about rates after that, it would go a long way toward establishing a short term trend toward higher rates.  Above all else, it bears repeating that the recent range has been exceptionally narrow, with over 2 months spent at either 4.125% or 4.25%.  Until that's no longer the case, risk and reward for locking or floating is low enough that a case can be made for either.

Loan Originator Perspective

"Rates took a step upward today, continuing to bounce within recent ranges. The hope is that we'll trend back down as we have been, but the pattern won't last forever. As the Fed draws closer to raising its Fed Funds rate, it's likely that 10 year bond yields will eventually rise, and mortgage rates with it. The biggest question isn't if, but when at this point. Until the pattern breaks, looks like the play is lock on rate dips for buyers with some risk tolerance. " -Ted Rood, Senior Mortgage Planner, tedroodteam.com

"For borrowers with a shorter time frame to closing (15 days or less) this failure of follow through to additional pricing improvement means I would recommend locking in and protecting current pricing. For those with longer time frames, however, we continue to meander within a range that until broken lends itself to more of a wait and see position. Stay connected closely to your mortgage professional, however, as the market can move quickly and you need to be ready to act." -Hugh W. Page, Sen. Mortgage Consultant, Capital Partners Mortgage

Today's Best-Execution Rates

30YR FIXED - 4.125- 4.25%
FHA/VA - 3.75%
15 YEAR FIXED -  3.375%
5 YEAR ARMS -  3.0-3.50% depending on the lender

Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

The hallmark of 2014 so far has been a disconcertingly narrow range in rates.  Too many market participants bet on rates going higher in 2014, and markets have punished that imbalance with a paradoxical move lower. As of June, rates were officially lower year-over-year, but that's due to rates' path higher in 2013.  The current path in 2014 remains sideways.  European markets continue to play a nagging role in the background, generally helping rates in the US remain lower than they otherwise might be.  From a wider point of view, we're in limbo, waiting for the first significant move away from the narrow range.  A rally into late May stood a chance to act as this break, but rates have since returned to what were previously the lower limits of the 2014 range. As always, please keep in mind that the rates discussed generally refer to what we've termed 'best-execution' (that is, the most frequently quoted, conforming, 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers, based not only on the outright price, but also 'bang-for-the-buck.'  Generally speaking, our best-execution rate tends to connote no origination or discount points--though this can vary--and tends to predict Freddie Mac's weekly survey with high accuracy.  It's safe to assume that our best-ex rate is the more timely and accurate of the two due to Freddie's once-a-week polling method).  Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

Mortgage Apps Bounce Back despite slightly higher rates

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported this morning that its Composite index of the market, which measures the volume of mortgage loan applications, an increase of 1.9% on a basis-seasonally adjusted during the week ended July 4.   On an unadjusted basis the index declined 19% from the week was completed on 27 June.  Seasonal adjustments compensated for the celebration of Independence Day, which shortened the business week.

The refinance index increased 0.4% from the previous week while the market share of applications for refinancing fell from 53% to 52%.

Refinance Index vs 30 year fixed

Adjusted for seasonal variations in the purchase Index increased by 4% from a week earlier, but the unadjusted index was decrease of 17% and 10% lower than that in the same week in 2013.

Purchase Index vs 30 yr fixed

Both the contractual interest rate and the effective rate for fixed-rate mortgages (FRM) age 30 with consistent balances of $417,000 or less have increased during the week to an average of 4.32% to 4.28%.  Points increased from 0.14 to 0.16.

Version jumbo FRM for 30 years (balance of loans exceeding $ 417,000) 4.26% to 0.06 point fell to 4.24% 0.16 point.  The rate has increased since the previous week.

FRM thirty years backed by FHA saw an increase in the average rate of 3 basis points to 4.02%.  Points is passed to-0.03-0.33 and the effective rate was higher than a week earlier.

The 15-year FRM was the only product where the interest rate eased.  It had a rate of 3.40% average contract and 0.22 point, down 3.42 percent with 0.16 point.  The rate remained unchanged.

Rate mortgages adjustable (weapons) again had a share of 8% of all applications.  The average interest rate of contract for 5/1 arm is passed to 3.24% 3.21%, with points, passing to 0.31 0.33. The rate has increased since the previous period.

MBA data are collected through its weekly mortgage applications survey which has been conducted since 1990.  The survey covers more than 75 percent of all retail mortgage applications in the country.  Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrift.  Interest rates are quoted for loans with a loan-to-value ratio of 80 percent and is home to the departure tax.  Volume indices have a base period and value of March 16, 1990 = 100.

You can see a list of all ministerial reviews by clicking on the 'Reading of the last comments' option under the 'Community' menu.

Australia consumer confidence edges higher in July

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Why higher interest rates won't stall U.S. job growth

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Fortune's Nin-Hai Tseng reports that as long as interest rates rise on positive economic news, as opposed to bad news, the economy will continue creating jobs at a decent pace.

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