Mortgage Rates Appreciably Lower After Geopolitical Headlines

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Mortgage rates moved more decisively lower today, though not for any stable or happy reasons.  Such is often the case with interest rates.  As economic conditions worsen or as terrible events around the world fuel demand for bonds, prices of those bonds rise, causing rates to drop.  This was the case today for US Treasuries as geopolitical events rocked markets.  Mortgage-backed-securities (the bonds most directly responsible for mortgage rates) tend to move in the same direction as Treasuries.  Today was no different, but with geopolitical headlines moving markets, Treasuries get more of the benefit because they're a more readily available "safe-haven" asset.

The events in question include the shooting down of a Malaysian airliner near the Ukraine/Russia border as well as the inception of an Israeli ground-based assault on Gaza.  There were other considerations in play today, but these were the biggest.  The net effect was strong and steady improvement in bond markets and several instances of mortgage lenders revising rate sheets lower during the day.  The gains leave 4.125% as the most prevalently-quoted conforming 30yr fixed rate for top tier scenarios.  The ability for rates to remain this low or move lower is limited only by the geopolitical strife to continue escalating.  Once it stagnates or improves, rates are likely to snap back higher.  Even then, we have yet to see a move outside the 2-month range.

Loan Originator Perspective

"The Malaysian Jet incident today created a bit of geopolitcal risk helping bonds and therefore mortgage rates improve today. On a technical basis we've moved nicely down to a floor in pricing but it appears we've been unable to break through this floor to prove this rally has more legs. Given that, I believe short term closings should stronglyconsider locking to reap the gains we've experienced. Folks with a longer term to closing can likely keep a floating with a cautious and attentive stance and a close connection to your loan officer." -Hugh W. Page, Sen. Mortgage Consultant, Capital Partners Mortgage

"FLOAT--Treasuries have moved towards 2014 lows, and Mortgages are trailing, slowly, behind. If treasuries simply hold these levels we'll see rates improve. As always, though, be ready to lock if momentum changes quickly." -Brent Borcherding, www.brentborcherding.com

"News of the Malaysian airliner being shot down over Ukraine has sparked a flight to safety trade where investors sell stocks in favor of bonds. The news helped push the benchmark 10 year note to the bottom of our recent range at 2.47 which has been very solid resistance. I have been saying the last few days to float the highs and lock the lows....however, we just received breaking news of a ground invasion of Gaza by Israel forces. This news has pushed the 10 year even lower. At this point, lenders will be very slow to pass along the improvements. Even though we are at the best levels in quite some time, I would recommend to float overnight to allow lenders additional time to pass along these improvements. " -Victor Burek, Open Mortgage

Today's Best-Execution Rates

30YR FIXED - 4.125
FHA/VA - 3.75%
15 YEAR FIXED -  3.375%
5 YEAR ARMS -  3.0-3.50% depending on the lender

Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

The hallmark of 2014 so far has been a disconcertingly narrow range in rates.  Too many market participants bet on rates going higher in 2014, and markets have punished that imbalance with a paradoxical move lower. As of June, rates were officially lower year-over-year, but that's due to rates' path higher in 2013.  The current path in 2014 remains sideways.  European markets continue to play a nagging role in the background, generally helping rates in the US remain lower than they otherwise might be.  From a wider point of view, we're in limbo, waiting for the first significant move away from the narrow range.  A rally into late May stood a chance to act as this break, but rates have since returned to what were previously the lower limits of the 2014 range. As always, please keep in mind that the rates discussed generally refer to what we've termed 'best-execution' (that is, the most frequently quoted, conforming, 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers, based not only on the outright price, but also 'bang-for-the-buck.'  Generally speaking, our best-execution rate tends to connote no origination or discount points--though this can vary--and tends to predict Freddie Mac's weekly survey with high accuracy.  It's safe to assume that our best-ex rate is the more timely and accurate of the two due to Freddie's once-a-week polling method).  Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

Mortgage Rates Unchanged to Slightly Higher

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Mortgage rates were just barely higher today on average.  The movement was so small that several lenders were actually unchanged or slightly better.  This is consistent with an ongoing trend of incredibly small day-to-day changes in rates.  The range has been narrow enough to keep the most prevalently quoted top-tier rate between 4.125% and 4.25% for conforming, 30yr fixed loans.  The market is currently fairly well split between the two depending on the lender and scenario.

Economic data is historically one of the most important considerations for interest rates.  Stronger data tends to push rates higher and vice versa.  Although the impact is diminished in the current era of narrow ranges, the connection is still observable on most occasions. 

Today, for instance, weaker manufacturing data gave a boost to the bonds that underlie mortgage rates early in the day.  Later in the morning, stronger homebuilder sentiment pushed back in the other direction.  The impacts were almost too faint to be detected in both cases.  Tomorrow brings a more robust line-up of economic data.  This could do more to cause movement in rates.

Loan Originator Perspective

"Continued relative calmness in the mortgage markets this week lends itself to complacency. However, calm in the mortgage markets is often followed quickly with volatility so borrowers on a short time frame to closing (within 15 days) should seriously consider locking. For the time being, longer closing periods may lend themselves to a wait and see position looking for the improved pricing one gets with a shorter lock period. Still, be closely connected to your loan officer and ready to make a quick lock decision as things can change for the worse rather quickly." -Hugh W. Page, Sen. Mortgage Consultant, Capital Partners Mortgage

"If you're looking to lock in the next day or two, I still favor locking at this time. There's still more risk to the upside than likelihood of a move lower, without much data on the horizon. Next week has more significant data that could move the market, then what remains in the next two days of this one." -Brent Borcherding, www.brentborcherding.com

"It appears 2.57 is still holding strong as support as yields hit this level earlier today and bounced off just like it had done yesterday. We do get some pretty significant data in the morning which could move the markets in either direction. With lender pricing the same today as yesterday, I think cautiously floating over night is the way to go, as long as you can tolerate the risk." -Victor Burek, Open Mortgage

"Right now, I favor locking at application to avoid any chance of rates spiking higher. Renegotiation options exist so why take a chance on higher rates causing a headache." -Michael Owens, VP of Mortgage Lending at Guaranteed Rate, Inc.

Today's Best-Execution Rates

30YR FIXED - 4.125- 4.25%
FHA/VA - 3.75%
15 YEAR FIXED -  3.375%
5 YEAR ARMS -  3.0-3.50% depending on the lender

Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

The hallmark of 2014 so far has been a disconcertingly narrow range in rates.  Too many market participants bet on rates going higher in 2014, and markets have punished that imbalance with a paradoxical move lower. As of June, rates were officially lower year-over-year, but that's due to rates' path higher in 2013.  The current path in 2014 remains sideways.  European markets continue to play a nagging role in the background, generally helping rates in the US remain lower than they otherwise might be.  From a wider point of view, we're in limbo, waiting for the first significant move away from the narrow range.  A rally into late May stood a chance to act as this break, but rates have since returned to what were previously the lower limits of the 2014 range. As always, please keep in mind that the rates discussed generally refer to what we've termed 'best-execution' (that is, the most frequently quoted, conforming, 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers, based not only on the outright price, but also 'bang-for-the-buck.'  Generally speaking, our best-execution rate tends to connote no origination or discount points--though this can vary--and tends to predict Freddie Mac's weekly survey with high accuracy.  It's safe to assume that our best-ex rate is the more timely and accurate of the two due to Freddie's once-a-week polling method).  Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

Mortgage rates stable to slightly lower

Mortgage rates settled barely lower in most cases today, although some lenders were unchanged or slightly higher.  It's a slow start to the week in relation to the financial markets that underlie variations in the rate by far.  There is no economic reports important and markets generally moved in unison from headlines geopolitical (i.e. fellows and rates are high and low, other).

With the limited motion, 4,125% rest most commonly cited conforming 30 year fixed rates for higher level scenarios.  All changes between quotation marks this weekend will only affect closing costs, and even in this case, they would be minimal.  It also means that rates remain well inside a narrow range in the last two months, even though they are closer to the lower end of the range at the moment.  While the new improvement can never be ruled out, the last time rates were this low were all good opportunities to lock.

Creative lending Perspective

"We started rallying week in the best mortgage price of only sell a little, that the afternoon passed. We are somehow at a critical time sitting near the ground where the rate drifted down to rates, but I think that we must go further down through this level to confirm this momentum to lower rates and to confirm a floating bias. Then, closures in the short term (less than 15 days) should seriously consider locking here. Closures of longer duration can probably maintain a wait and see position until we get confirmation on the direction."-Hugh W. Page, Consultant mortgage Sen, Capital mortgage partners

"I think that locking is a sound approach and today." We are at or near lows over 10 years for the last 3 months and if we get the data to be used for the maintenance of a subway, the next step would be upwards of in the sector. "Take your earnings, lock and be happy!"-Brent Borcherding, www.brentborcherding.com

"Increased geopolitical tensions that normally help push more low rates do not have this effect on the markets." If rates are not moving lowest they remain at low levels due to geopolitical tensions. If it's rate can climb in a hurry should tensions ease considerably. "Anyway you look at floating is a but risky at the moment."  Manny Gomes, Manager of the branch, Norcom mortgage

"Geopolitical risks continue to occupy their rates down but the 10 year note do not like the weather below 2.47. Rates today are as good as they have been in about a month. My recommendation is to block if you're in the 15 days and longer closures term might consider locking as well. With floating from geopolitical tensions is that can relieve tension and all the recent gains can be taken away quite quickly. Conditions in Ukraine and Palestine should probably get worse for lower movement rates in the near term."-Victor Burek, open mortgage

Best performance of today rate

30 year fixed - 4.125
FHA / VA - 3.75%
15 YEARS FIXED - 3.375%
5 year arm - 3.0 - 3, 50% depending on the lender

Considerations of course/float lock

The hallmark of 2014 so far has been a disconcerting range restricted in the tariffs.  Too many market players bet on rates increasing them in 2014, and markets have sanctioned this imbalance with a less paradoxical movement. From June, the rates were officially lower-year, but it is because of the trajectory of the rates higher in 2013.  The current path in 2014 remains on the side.  European markets continue to play a role in the background, haunting generally helping rates in the United States remain lower than otherwise, they could be.  From a broader point of view, we are in limbo, wait the first important move away from close range.  A rally in late May was a chance to act as this break, but rates have since returned to what were previously the lower limits of the range of 2014. As always, please keep in mind that rates discussed generally relates to what we have called 'best performance' (otherwise said, the most frequently cited, compliant, 30 year fixed rates for borrowers from high level, only on the price of pure and simple non-based, but also 'bang-for-the-buck.'  In General, our best execution rate tends to connote no departure or discount points - even if this may vary - and tends to predict the weekly Freddie Mac survey with great precision.  It is reasonable to assume that our rate of best-ex is the fastest and most accurate of the two due to the method of voting once per week from Freddie).  Coo, Mortgage News Daily / MBS living a former writer, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, its focus shifted increasingly towards relating MBS and the broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

MBS mid-day: with few things to look at, rates follow Stocks lower

Access to more precise indications in time real back months TBA Thomson Reuters and Tradeweb. More MBS mid-day: with little to monitor, rates follow lower Stocks

With no economic data major on the schedule and no titles change to respond to, bond markets were contained to follow stocks so far this morning.  Stocks are lower and the links are stronger.  There not much more to it than that.

This dynamic did not really begin until the national session.  Overnight trading was quiet as Japanese markets were closed for a holiday.  European trading was on the side of each side of the unchanged.  Stocks and bonds gives began to slide together just after 08.

MBS generally does a better job to follow the rhythm of the bills since Friday.  Fannie s 3.5 are the most relevant coupon rate sheets at the moment and they are in place nearly a quarter of a point on the day.

Priced below are delayed, note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.Pricing dated 21/07/14 11:35AMEST morning recalculate alerts and updates 10:47 : market bond Gains accelerate as Stocks Slide 09:01 : bond markets hold Gains by weekend as to intensify global Tensions Clayton Sandy : "spoke with more credit and they said this is transunion that reports all the lates." Says I need to update". Joon choi : "there is a surrogate of the PFS confirmed CR code" Clayton Sandy : "as someone has a bit of luck to get a reported short sale foreclosure update credit kind bed properly?" Discuss the MBS and mortgage markets on our dashboard streaming

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Mortgage Rates Hold Steady Despite Market Weakness

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AppId is over the quota

Mortgage rates managed to hold their ground today.  Some lenders were even in slightly better shape, though there was no change on average.  That's somewhat interesting considering the bond markets that most directly affect rates were in slightly weaker shape today.  In short, market movement pointed to higher rates.  So how did they manage to hold steady?

Today's somewhat counterintuitive strength is really the story of yesterday's completely understandable hesitation.  Yesterday was driven by several unexpected and relatively shocking headlines.  While it's not uncommon for bond markets to respond to such events, it's just as likely that the trading levels will bounce back a bit after the first phase of the reaction.  Whether that happens sooner or later, lenders don't perceive such events as having a lasting impact on the bond prices that dictate their rates.

In other words, yesterday's improvements in mortgage rates belied the scale of the market movement.  One additional factor here was that the last push in markets yesterday came too late in the day for many lenders to adjust rate sheets.  So rate sheets never fully reflected the market gains.  That left them in a better position today to soak up a bit of market weakness without any profound effect on rate sheets.

4.125% remains the most prevalently-quoted conforming 30yr fixed rate for top tier scenarios.  When it comes to geopolitical risks, a lot can happen over the weekend.  The baseline scenario is for that 'bounce back' mentioned above, but on the chance the situation in Ukraine or Israel deteriorates further, rates could continue to improve.  We're really at the mercy of the headlines (or lack thereof). The biggest market movements in the near future are likely reserved for the week after next when several important scheduled events occur in the space of 3 days.  We'll discuss that more as it approaches, but that week has a chance to set the tone for the next major rate movement.

Loan Originator Perspective

"No follow through on improvements in pricing today which makes me lean on the side of protecting this pricing now for short term locks before a bounce back higher occurs. Floating loans closing in over 30 days is likely not a big risk but as we get closer to the end of the month the economic data begins to heat up with our first reading on 2nd Quarter GDP on 7/30 followed by the all important Jobs Report on August 1st. Borrowers floating in to this time frame need to stay vigilant and aware of what's going on in the markets by staying in close contact with their loan officer." -Hugh W. Page, Sen. Mortgage Consultant, Capital Partners Mortgage

"If you've floated to this point, I'd certainly wait to see what Monday brings and then cautiously adjust my plan each day moving forward. Mortgages are still trailing a long way behind Treasuries and next week brings about a lot of data that can heavily influence both. Cautiously floating into next week is my plan." -Brent Borcherding, www.brentborcherding.com

"The dust is settling, if only for the moment, after yesterday's frantic action. Biggest concern after rates improve due to geopolitical strife is that the gains can evaporate quickly. With that in mind, folks closing within 30 days may want to take a hard look at today's pricing. Those with longer time frames, and some risk tolerance, might consider floating. Ukraine is not solved, Israel is still in Gaza, etc, so the potential for more incidents is high. Hate to see international drama, but it does often help mortgage rates." Ted Rood, Senior Mortgage Planner, tedroodteam.com

"I favor locking in the recent small gains as I feel they are not likely to stay around. Geopolitical events are reflected in the current market, keeping rates low, but those effects can quickly fade." -Michael Owens, VP of Mortgage Lending at Guaranteed Rate, Inc.

Today's Best-Execution Rates

30YR FIXED - 4.125
FHA/VA - 3.75%
15 YEAR FIXED -  3.375%
5 YEAR ARMS -  3.0-3.50% depending on the lender

Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

The hallmark of 2014 so far has been a disconcertingly narrow range in rates.  Too many market participants bet on rates going higher in 2014, and markets have punished that imbalance with a paradoxical move lower. As of June, rates were officially lower year-over-year, but that's due to rates' path higher in 2013.  The current path in 2014 remains sideways.  European markets continue to play a nagging role in the background, generally helping rates in the US remain lower than they otherwise might be.  From a wider point of view, we're in limbo, waiting for the first significant move away from the narrow range.  A rally into late May stood a chance to act as this break, but rates have since returned to what were previously the lower limits of the 2014 range. As always, please keep in mind that the rates discussed generally refer to what we've termed 'best-execution' (that is, the most frequently quoted, conforming, 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers, based not only on the outright price, but also 'bang-for-the-buck.'  Generally speaking, our best-execution rate tends to connote no origination or discount points--though this can vary--and tends to predict Freddie Mac's weekly survey with high accuracy.  It's safe to assume that our best-ex rate is the more timely and accurate of the two due to Freddie's once-a-week polling method).  Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

Mortgage Rates Appreciably Lower After Geopolitical Headlines

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AppId is over the quota

Mortgage rates moved more decisively lower today, though not for any stable or happy reasons.  Such is often the case with interest rates.  As economic conditions worsen or as terrible events around the world fuel demand for bonds, prices of those bonds rise, causing rates to drop.  This was the case today for US Treasuries as geopolitical events rocked markets.  Mortgage-backed-securities (the bonds most directly responsible for mortgage rates) tend to move in the same direction as Treasuries.  Today was no different, but with geopolitical headlines moving markets, Treasuries get more of the benefit because they're a more readily available "safe-haven" asset.

The events in question include the shooting down of a Malaysian airliner near the Ukraine/Russia border as well as the inception of an Israeli ground-based assault on Gaza.  There were other considerations in play today, but these were the biggest.  The net effect was strong and steady improvement in bond markets and several instances of mortgage lenders revising rate sheets lower during the day.  The gains leave 4.125% as the most prevalently-quoted conforming 30yr fixed rate for top tier scenarios.  The ability for rates to remain this low or move lower is limited only by the geopolitical strife to continue escalating.  Once it stagnates or improves, rates are likely to snap back higher.  Even then, we have yet to see a move outside the 2-month range.

Loan Originator Perspective

"The Malaysian Jet incident today created a bit of geopolitcal risk helping bonds and therefore mortgage rates improve today. On a technical basis we've moved nicely down to a floor in pricing but it appears we've been unable to break through this floor to prove this rally has more legs. Given that, I believe short term closings should stronglyconsider locking to reap the gains we've experienced. Folks with a longer term to closing can likely keep a floating with a cautious and attentive stance and a close connection to your loan officer." -Hugh W. Page, Sen. Mortgage Consultant, Capital Partners Mortgage

"FLOAT--Treasuries have moved towards 2014 lows, and Mortgages are trailing, slowly, behind. If treasuries simply hold these levels we'll see rates improve. As always, though, be ready to lock if momentum changes quickly." -Brent Borcherding, www.brentborcherding.com

"News of the Malaysian airliner being shot down over Ukraine has sparked a flight to safety trade where investors sell stocks in favor of bonds. The news helped push the benchmark 10 year note to the bottom of our recent range at 2.47 which has been very solid resistance. I have been saying the last few days to float the highs and lock the lows....however, we just received breaking news of a ground invasion of Gaza by Israel forces. This news has pushed the 10 year even lower. At this point, lenders will be very slow to pass along the improvements. Even though we are at the best levels in quite some time, I would recommend to float overnight to allow lenders additional time to pass along these improvements. " -Victor Burek, Open Mortgage

Today's Best-Execution Rates

30YR FIXED - 4.125
FHA/VA - 3.75%
15 YEAR FIXED -  3.375%
5 YEAR ARMS -  3.0-3.50% depending on the lender

Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

The hallmark of 2014 so far has been a disconcertingly narrow range in rates.  Too many market participants bet on rates going higher in 2014, and markets have punished that imbalance with a paradoxical move lower. As of June, rates were officially lower year-over-year, but that's due to rates' path higher in 2013.  The current path in 2014 remains sideways.  European markets continue to play a nagging role in the background, generally helping rates in the US remain lower than they otherwise might be.  From a wider point of view, we're in limbo, waiting for the first significant move away from the narrow range.  A rally into late May stood a chance to act as this break, but rates have since returned to what were previously the lower limits of the 2014 range. As always, please keep in mind that the rates discussed generally refer to what we've termed 'best-execution' (that is, the most frequently quoted, conforming, 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers, based not only on the outright price, but also 'bang-for-the-buck.'  Generally speaking, our best-execution rate tends to connote no origination or discount points--though this can vary--and tends to predict Freddie Mac's weekly survey with high accuracy.  It's safe to assume that our best-ex rate is the more timely and accurate of the two due to Freddie's once-a-week polling method).  Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

Mortgage rates hold steady despite the weakness of the market

Mortgage rates has managed to maintain their positions today.  Some lenders were even in the form of a little better, although no there was no change in average.  It is kinda interesting considering the bond markets that affect directly the rates were slightly lower shaped today.  In short, market movement made at higher rates.  So, how they has failed to stop?

Today's somewhat paradoxical strength is really the story of to the understandable reluctance of yesterday.  Yesterday has been fueled by several titles quite shocking and unexpected.  It is not uncommon that the bond markets respond to such events, but it is equally likely that the levels of trade will bounce back a bit after the first phase of the reaction.  If this happens sooner or later, lenders do not perceive these events as having a lasting impact on the price of the bonds that dictate their tariffs.

In other words, improvement of mortgage rates yesterday denied the scale of the movement of the market.  An additional factor here was that the last boost in markets yesterday came too late in the day for many lenders adjust rate sheets.  If leaves rate never fully taken into account the market gains.  Which left them in a better position today to soak up a bit of weakness in the market without profound effect on rate sheets.

4,125% rest most commonly cited conforming 30 year fixed rates for higher level scenarios.  When it comes to geopolitical risks, much can happen over the weekend.  The baseline scenario is for that "bounce" mentioned above, but on the chance, as the situation in Ukraine or Israel to deteriorates, rates may continue to improve.  We are really at the mercy of the titles (or lack thereof). The greatest market movements in the near future is probably reserved for next week several important regular events occur in the space of 3 days.  We will discuss that more as he approaches, but this week has a chance to set the tone for the next important rate movement.

Creative lending Perspective

"No follow-up on improvements to today's prices, that makes me look on the side of protecting this pricing now for locks in the short-term before a higher rear rebound occurs." Floating loans more than 30 days of closure is probably not a great risk, but as we get closer to the end of the month the economic data are beginning to warm up with our first reading on second quarter GDP on 7/30, followed by the jobs report all important August 1. "borrowers floating in this period of time need to stay vigilant and aware of what is happening in the markets while remaining in close contact with their loan officer."-Hugh w. Page, Senator, mortgage Consultant mortgage Capital Partners

"If you float on this point, I would certainly wait to see what brings the Monday and then carefully adjust my plan each day go ahead." Mortgages are still far lags behind the Treasury bills and next week there is much data that can strongly influence both. Floating with caution in the next week is my plan. "-Brent Borcherding, www.brentborcherding.com

"The dust settles, if for the moment, after frenzied action of yesterday. More great concern after that rate improve because of geopolitical unrest, is that gains can evaporate quickly. In this spirit, people within 30 days of closing can take a critical look at today's prices. Those who have longer deadlines and a risk tolerance, could consider floating. The Ukraine is not resolved, Israel is still in the Gaza Strip, etc., so the potential for incidents more is high. Look forward to seeing dramatic international, but it often helps mortgage rates. » Ted Rood, main Planner mortgage, tedroodteam.com

"I am in favour because I believe that they are not likely to remain around locking in the small recent gains. Geopolitical events are reflected in the current market, keeping rates low, but these effects can quickly fade. ' -Michael Owens, VP of mortgages at Guaranteed Rate, Inc..

Best performance of today rate

30 year fixed - 4.125
FHA / VA - 3.75%
15 YEARS FIXED - 3.375%
5 year arm - 3.0 - 3, 50% depending on the lender

Considerations of course/float lock

The hallmark of 2014 so far has been a disconcerting range restricted in the tariffs.  Too many market players bet on rates increasing them in 2014, and markets have sanctioned this imbalance with a less paradoxical movement. From June, the rates were officially lower-year, but it is because of the trajectory of the rates higher in 2013.  The current path in 2014 remains on the side.  European markets continue to play a role in the background, haunting generally helping rates in the United States remain lower than otherwise, they could be.  From a broader point of view, we are in limbo, wait the first important move away from close range.  A rally in late May was a chance to act as this break, but rates have since returned to what were previously the lower limits of the range of 2014. As always, please keep in mind that rates discussed generally relates to what we have called 'best performance' (otherwise said, the most frequently cited, compliant, 30 year fixed rates for borrowers from high level, only on the price of pure and simple non-based, but also 'bang-for-the-buck.'  In General, our best execution rate tends to connote no departure or discount points - even if this may vary - and tends to predict the weekly Freddie Mac survey with great precision.  It is reasonable to assume that our rate of best-ex is the fastest and most accurate of the two due to the method of voting once per week from Freddie).  Coo, Mortgage News Daily / MBS living a former writer, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, its focus shifted increasingly towards relating MBS and the broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

Mortgage Rates Continue Higher After Yellen Testimony

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AppId is over the quota

Mortgage rates moved slightly higher again today.  Fed Chair Janet Yellen provided her semi-annual testimony to the Senate Banking Committee this morning.  The financial markets that underlie mortgage rates saw quite a bit of volatility during the testimony, but it ultimately canceled itself out.  This left the secondary mortgage market in roughly the same position as it was earlier in the morning.  Unfortunately, that position was a bit weaker than yesterday's latest levels which were, themselves, the weakest of the day. 

In other words, after the smoke cleared, today's market movements confirmed yesterday's weakness, pushing rates higher.  That said, none of the recent movement in mortgage rates could be considered "fast-paced."  Today's increase just barely begins pushing the boundary between 4.25% and 4.125%.  By the end of last week 4.125% was more prevalent as a conforming 30yr fixed rate quote for the best possible scenarios.  After these past two days of weakness, 4.25% is more prevalent than it was, but hasn't taken the spotlight yet.

Loan Originator Perspective

"We're still close to recent lows, and without at any compelling data on the horizon, I think locking is a very conservative decision--an approach that I would very likely embrace. Until we make a decided move out of this range, I'd float at the highs and lock at the lows." -Brent Borcherding, www.brentborcherding.com

"If you can tolerate the risk, I think floating all loans overnight is the way to go. It appears we have some good support just overhead on the benchmark 10 year note at 2.57. Float the highs, lock the lows. " -Victor Burek, Open Mortgage

Today's Best-Execution Rates

30YR FIXED - 4.125- 4.25%
FHA/VA - 3.75%
15 YEAR FIXED -  3.375%
5 YEAR ARMS -  3.0-3.50% depending on the lender

Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

The hallmark of 2014 so far has been a disconcertingly narrow range in rates.  Too many market participants bet on rates going higher in 2014, and markets have punished that imbalance with a paradoxical move lower. As of June, rates were officially lower year-over-year, but that's due to rates' path higher in 2013.  The current path in 2014 remains sideways.  European markets continue to play a nagging role in the background, generally helping rates in the US remain lower than they otherwise might be.  From a wider point of view, we're in limbo, waiting for the first significant move away from the narrow range.  A rally into late May stood a chance to act as this break, but rates have since returned to what were previously the lower limits of the 2014 range. As always, please keep in mind that the rates discussed generally refer to what we've termed 'best-execution' (that is, the most frequently quoted, conforming, 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers, based not only on the outright price, but also 'bang-for-the-buck.'  Generally speaking, our best-execution rate tends to connote no origination or discount points--though this can vary--and tends to predict Freddie Mac's weekly survey with high accuracy.  It's safe to assume that our best-ex rate is the more timely and accurate of the two due to Freddie's once-a-week polling method).  Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

Mortgage Rates Unchanged to Slightly Higher

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AppId is over the quota

Mortgage rates were just barely higher today on average.  The movement was so small that several lenders were actually unchanged or slightly better.  This is consistent with an ongoing trend of incredibly small day-to-day changes in rates.  The range has been narrow enough to keep the most prevalently quoted top-tier rate between 4.125% and 4.25% for conforming, 30yr fixed loans.  The market is currently fairly well split between the two depending on the lender and scenario.

Economic data is historically one of the most important considerations for interest rates.  Stronger data tends to push rates higher and vice versa.  Although the impact is diminished in the current era of narrow ranges, the connection is still observable on most occasions. 

Today, for instance, weaker manufacturing data gave a boost to the bonds that underlie mortgage rates early in the day.  Later in the morning, stronger homebuilder sentiment pushed back in the other direction.  The impacts were almost too faint to be detected in both cases.  Tomorrow brings a more robust line-up of economic data.  This could do more to cause movement in rates.

Loan Originator Perspective

"Continued relative calmness in the mortgage markets this week lends itself to complacency. However, calm in the mortgage markets is often followed quickly with volatility so borrowers on a short time frame to closing (within 15 days) should seriously consider locking. For the time being, longer closing periods may lend themselves to a wait and see position looking for the improved pricing one gets with a shorter lock period. Still, be closely connected to your loan officer and ready to make a quick lock decision as things can change for the worse rather quickly." -Hugh W. Page, Sen. Mortgage Consultant, Capital Partners Mortgage

"If you're looking to lock in the next day or two, I still favor locking at this time. There's still more risk to the upside than likelihood of a move lower, without much data on the horizon. Next week has more significant data that could move the market, then what remains in the next two days of this one." -Brent Borcherding, www.brentborcherding.com

"It appears 2.57 is still holding strong as support as yields hit this level earlier today and bounced off just like it had done yesterday. We do get some pretty significant data in the morning which could move the markets in either direction. With lender pricing the same today as yesterday, I think cautiously floating over night is the way to go, as long as you can tolerate the risk." -Victor Burek, Open Mortgage

"Right now, I favor locking at application to avoid any chance of rates spiking higher. Renegotiation options exist so why take a chance on higher rates causing a headache." -Michael Owens, VP of Mortgage Lending at Guaranteed Rate, Inc.

Today's Best-Execution Rates

30YR FIXED - 4.125- 4.25%
FHA/VA - 3.75%
15 YEAR FIXED -  3.375%
5 YEAR ARMS -  3.0-3.50% depending on the lender

Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

The hallmark of 2014 so far has been a disconcertingly narrow range in rates.  Too many market participants bet on rates going higher in 2014, and markets have punished that imbalance with a paradoxical move lower. As of June, rates were officially lower year-over-year, but that's due to rates' path higher in 2013.  The current path in 2014 remains sideways.  European markets continue to play a nagging role in the background, generally helping rates in the US remain lower than they otherwise might be.  From a wider point of view, we're in limbo, waiting for the first significant move away from the narrow range.  A rally into late May stood a chance to act as this break, but rates have since returned to what were previously the lower limits of the 2014 range. As always, please keep in mind that the rates discussed generally refer to what we've termed 'best-execution' (that is, the most frequently quoted, conforming, 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers, based not only on the outright price, but also 'bang-for-the-buck.'  Generally speaking, our best-execution rate tends to connote no origination or discount points--though this can vary--and tends to predict Freddie Mac's weekly survey with high accuracy.  It's safe to assume that our best-ex rate is the more timely and accurate of the two due to Freddie's once-a-week polling method).  Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

Mortgage Rates Edge Down to July Lows

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AppId is over the quota

Mortgage rates moved just barely lower today, bringing them in lines with the lowest levels of the month.  In this case, when we talk about "the lowest levels of the month," it means that closing costs are as low as they've been for the same rates that have been available for the past several days.

In other words, 4.125% is still the most prevalently quoted conforming 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers, but the closing costs associated with that rate are just a bit lower today vs yesterday.  4.25% remains fairly prevalent as well, depending on the lender and scenario.

With today's gains, rates have strung together a full week without moving higher at all.  Those are the sorts of streaks that only last for so long before turning around, even if only temporarily.  In other words, 5 days is long winning streak when it comes to rates.  Each successive day makes it exponentially more likely to take a breather.  Combine that with the fact that 4.125% is on the lower end of the 2014 rate range and those inclined to lock are perfectly justified. 

Risk-takers holding out for further gains also have some room for weakness as rates aren't likely to break above June/July highs without ample warning, and it's those highs that would be the most aggressive line in the sand at which floaters should lock to prevent further losses.

Loan Originator Perspective

"Not much change in lender pricing overnight. As today has progressed, MBS have managed to eek out some gains and a couple lenders have repriced for the better. I would encourage those within 15 days of closing to lock IF their lender reprices better today. If you do not get a reprice better or if you are closing in over 30 days, I would to the risk and float over the weekend. There are quite a few global issues which could very easily spark a flight to safety rally which would benefit rates." -Victor Burek, Open Mortgage

"Looks like floating has paid off however this may be coming to an end soon. I would take a good look at the market Monday as that may be the day to start locking loans closing within the next couple of weeks." -Chris Marconi Vice President First Midwest Bank

"Rates improved again today making it a pretty good day to lock especially if your lender issues improved pricing in the afternoon or if your closing is a few weeks out. I'm keeping my eyes on the ten year treasury yield. If we break below 2.50% there is a chance rates could continue to improve. We do need to be cautious for the past few times we dipped below 2.50% the yield bounced higher." -Manny Gomes, Branch Manager, Norcom Mortgage

"Even though we end the week with better pricing than when we began, we've hit a floor again here where the lack of follow through to better pricing worries me a little. I would strongly consider locking in this pricing if your closing is within the next 15 days. For longer term closings it might pay off to wait and see if we get any follow through to better pricing next week but any sort of reversal to worse pricing would make we shift to a locking bias." -Hugh W. Page, Sen. Mortgage Consultant, Capital Partners Mortgage

Today's Best-Execution Rates

30YR FIXED - 4.125- 4.25%
FHA/VA - 3.75%
15 YEAR FIXED -  3.375%
5 YEAR ARMS -  3.0-3.50% depending on the lender

Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

The hallmark of 2014 so far has been a disconcertingly narrow range in rates.  Too many market participants bet on rates going higher in 2014, and markets have punished that imbalance with a paradoxical move lower. As of June, rates were officially lower year-over-year, but that's due to rates' path higher in 2013.  The current path in 2014 remains sideways.  European markets continue to play a nagging role in the background, generally helping rates in the US remain lower than they otherwise might be.  From a wider point of view, we're in limbo, waiting for the first significant move away from the narrow range.  A rally into late May stood a chance to act as this break, but rates have since returned to what were previously the lower limits of the 2014 range. As always, please keep in mind that the rates discussed generally refer to what we've termed 'best-execution' (that is, the most frequently quoted, conforming, 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers, based not only on the outright price, but also 'bang-for-the-buck.'  Generally speaking, our best-execution rate tends to connote no origination or discount points--though this can vary--and tends to predict Freddie Mac's weekly survey with high accuracy.  It's safe to assume that our best-ex rate is the more timely and accurate of the two due to Freddie's once-a-week polling method).  Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

Mortgage Rates Continue Higher After Yellen Testimony

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AppId is over the quota

Mortgage rates moved slightly higher again today.  Fed Chair Janet Yellen provided her semi-annual testimony to the Senate Banking Committee this morning.  The financial markets that underlie mortgage rates saw quite a bit of volatility during the testimony, but it ultimately canceled itself out.  This left the secondary mortgage market in roughly the same position as it was earlier in the morning.  Unfortunately, that position was a bit weaker than yesterday's latest levels which were, themselves, the weakest of the day. 

In other words, after the smoke cleared, today's market movements confirmed yesterday's weakness, pushing rates higher.  That said, none of the recent movement in mortgage rates could be considered "fast-paced."  Today's increase just barely begins pushing the boundary between 4.25% and 4.125%.  By the end of last week 4.125% was more prevalent as a conforming 30yr fixed rate quote for the best possible scenarios.  After these past two days of weakness, 4.25% is more prevalent than it was, but hasn't taken the spotlight yet.

Loan Originator Perspective

"We're still close to recent lows, and without at any compelling data on the horizon, I think locking is a very conservative decision--an approach that I would very likely embrace. Until we make a decided move out of this range, I'd float at the highs and lock at the lows." -Brent Borcherding, www.brentborcherding.com

"If you can tolerate the risk, I think floating all loans overnight is the way to go. It appears we have some good support just overhead on the benchmark 10 year note at 2.57. Float the highs, lock the lows. " -Victor Burek, Open Mortgage

Today's Best-Execution Rates

30YR FIXED - 4.125- 4.25%
FHA/VA - 3.75%
15 YEAR FIXED -  3.375%
5 YEAR ARMS -  3.0-3.50% depending on the lender

Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

The hallmark of 2014 so far has been a disconcertingly narrow range in rates.  Too many market participants bet on rates going higher in 2014, and markets have punished that imbalance with a paradoxical move lower. As of June, rates were officially lower year-over-year, but that's due to rates' path higher in 2013.  The current path in 2014 remains sideways.  European markets continue to play a nagging role in the background, generally helping rates in the US remain lower than they otherwise might be.  From a wider point of view, we're in limbo, waiting for the first significant move away from the narrow range.  A rally into late May stood a chance to act as this break, but rates have since returned to what were previously the lower limits of the 2014 range. As always, please keep in mind that the rates discussed generally refer to what we've termed 'best-execution' (that is, the most frequently quoted, conforming, 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers, based not only on the outright price, but also 'bang-for-the-buck.'  Generally speaking, our best-execution rate tends to connote no origination or discount points--though this can vary--and tends to predict Freddie Mac's weekly survey with high accuracy.  It's safe to assume that our best-ex rate is the more timely and accurate of the two due to Freddie's once-a-week polling method).  Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

Mortgage rates unchanged and slightly higher

Mortgage rates were barely today highest average.  The movement was so small that several lenders have been effectively unchanged or a little better.  This is consistent with a persistent tendency to incredibly small daily variations in rates.  The range was narrow enough to keep the most commonly cited rate of high-level 4,125% and 4.25% for 30 year fixed conforming loans.  The market is currently fairly evenly distributed between the two depending on the lender and the scenario.

Economic data are historically one of the most important interest rate considerations.  Data strongest tend to push higher and vice versa.  Although the impact is reduced in the current era of narrow ranges, the connection is still observable on most occasions.

Today, for example, weaker manufacturing data gave a boost of ties that underpin mortgage rates earlier in the day.  Later in the morning, the strongest sense of home builders pushed in the other direction.  The impacts were almost too low to be detected in both cases.  Tomorrow brings a more robust line-up of economic data.  This could do more to cause a movement of rates.

Creative lending Perspective

"Is always calm on the markets of mortgage credit this week lends itself to complacency. However, calm in the mortgage credit markets is often followed quickly with volatility so borrowers on a short period of time to close (within 15 days) should seriously consider locking. For now, more extended periods of closure can lend themselves to a wait and see position looking for improved pricing is obtained with a shorter period of the lock. Still, remain closely linked to your agent credit and ready to make a decision quick lock as things may change for the worse quite quickly. "-Hugh W. Page, Consultant mortgage Sen, Capital mortgage partners "

"If you're looking to lock the next day or two, I still support locking at this time. There is still more upside risk the probability of a move lower, without much data on the horizon. "Next week gave more significant that could move the market, then what remains in the next two days of it."-Brent Borcherding, www.brentborcherding.com

"It seems 2.57 is always held strong as support as performance has reached this level earlier today and bounced off everything as she did yesterday." We receive enough meaningful data in the morning which could move the market in either direction. Lender the same pricing today as yesterday, I believe that carefully floating over night is the way to go, as long as you can tolerate the risk."-Victor Burek, open mortgage

"Right now, I am in favour of blocking the application to avoid any risk of the higher rate of fortification." Renegotiation of options exist then why take a chance on higher rates, causing a headache."-Michael Owens, VP of mortgages at Guaranteed Rate, Inc.

Best performance of today rate

30 year fixed - 4,125 to 4.25%
FHA / VA - 3.75%
15 YEARS FIXED - 3.375%
5 year arm - 3.0 - 3, 50% depending on the lender

Considerations of course/float lock

The hallmark of 2014 so far has been a disconcerting range restricted in the tariffs.  Too many market players bet on rates increasing them in 2014, and markets have sanctioned this imbalance with a less paradoxical movement. From June, the rates were officially lower-year, but it is because of the trajectory of the rates higher in 2013.  The current path in 2014 remains on the side.  European markets continue to play a role in the background, haunting generally helping rates in the United States remain lower than otherwise, they could be.  From a broader point of view, we are in limbo, wait the first important move away from close range.  A rally in late May was a chance to act as this break, but rates have since returned to what were previously the lower limits of the range of 2014. As always, please keep in mind that rates discussed generally relates to what we have called 'best performance' (otherwise said, the most frequently cited, compliant, 30 year fixed rates for borrowers from high level, only on the price of pure and simple non-based, but also 'bang-for-the-buck.'  In General, our best execution rate tends to connote no departure or discount points - even if this may vary - and tends to predict the weekly Freddie Mac survey with great precision.  It is reasonable to assume that our rate of best-ex is the fastest and most accurate of the two due to the method of voting once per week from Freddie).  Coo, Mortgage News Daily / MBS living a former writer, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, its focus shifted increasingly towards relating MBS and the broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher, Ending Last Week's Streak

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AppId is over the quota

Mortgage rates rose modestly today, ending last week's streak of 5 days without an increase.  The movement wasn't enough to unseat 4.125% as the most prevalently-quoted conforming 30yr fixed rate for top tier scenarios.  That means today's changes came in the form of increased closing costs for the same rates as Friday.  Expressed in terms of rates, the hike is equivalent to 0.03%.

As we discussed on Friday, the sorts of winning streaks seen last week become progressively less likely to continue after the 5-day mark, even if the pull-back is only temporary.  Whether or not today's pull-back proves to be temporary will likely have something to do with tomorrow's significant events.  Earlier in the morning, the Retail Sales report could cause some movement in the bond markets that most directly affect mortgage rates. 

The main event will be Fed Chair Yellen's first day of congressional testimony.  If markets are still feeling negative about rates after that, it would go a long way toward establishing a short term trend toward higher rates.  Above all else, it bears repeating that the recent range has been exceptionally narrow, with over 2 months spent at either 4.125% or 4.25%.  Until that's no longer the case, risk and reward for locking or floating is low enough that a case can be made for either.

Loan Originator Perspective

"Rates took a step upward today, continuing to bounce within recent ranges. The hope is that we'll trend back down as we have been, but the pattern won't last forever. As the Fed draws closer to raising its Fed Funds rate, it's likely that 10 year bond yields will eventually rise, and mortgage rates with it. The biggest question isn't if, but when at this point. Until the pattern breaks, looks like the play is lock on rate dips for buyers with some risk tolerance. " -Ted Rood, Senior Mortgage Planner, tedroodteam.com

"For borrowers with a shorter time frame to closing (15 days or less) this failure of follow through to additional pricing improvement means I would recommend locking in and protecting current pricing. For those with longer time frames, however, we continue to meander within a range that until broken lends itself to more of a wait and see position. Stay connected closely to your mortgage professional, however, as the market can move quickly and you need to be ready to act." -Hugh W. Page, Sen. Mortgage Consultant, Capital Partners Mortgage

Today's Best-Execution Rates

30YR FIXED - 4.125- 4.25%
FHA/VA - 3.75%
15 YEAR FIXED -  3.375%
5 YEAR ARMS -  3.0-3.50% depending on the lender

Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

The hallmark of 2014 so far has been a disconcertingly narrow range in rates.  Too many market participants bet on rates going higher in 2014, and markets have punished that imbalance with a paradoxical move lower. As of June, rates were officially lower year-over-year, but that's due to rates' path higher in 2013.  The current path in 2014 remains sideways.  European markets continue to play a nagging role in the background, generally helping rates in the US remain lower than they otherwise might be.  From a wider point of view, we're in limbo, waiting for the first significant move away from the narrow range.  A rally into late May stood a chance to act as this break, but rates have since returned to what were previously the lower limits of the 2014 range. As always, please keep in mind that the rates discussed generally refer to what we've termed 'best-execution' (that is, the most frequently quoted, conforming, 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers, based not only on the outright price, but also 'bang-for-the-buck.'  Generally speaking, our best-execution rate tends to connote no origination or discount points--though this can vary--and tends to predict Freddie Mac's weekly survey with high accuracy.  It's safe to assume that our best-ex rate is the more timely and accurate of the two due to Freddie's once-a-week polling method).  Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

Bonds continue to rule weak; call rates move down

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AppId is over the quota
MUMBAI: The government bond (G-Sec) prices continued to rule weak on consistent selling pressure from banks and corporates.

The overnight call money rate dipped further on surfeit of liquidity in banking system.

The 8.83 per cent government security maturing in 2023 dropped to Rs 100.3900 from Rs 100.6325 previously, while its yield rose to 8.77 per cent from 8.73.

The 8.60 per cent government security maturing in 2028 declined to Rs 99.74 from Rs 99.9375, while its yield gained to 8.63 per cent from 8.61 per cent.

The 8.35 per cent government security maturing in 2022 fell to Rs 97.55 from Rs 97.64, while its yield moved-up to 8.79 per cent from 8.77 per cent

The 8.12 per cent government security maturing in 2020, the 8.28 per cent government security maturing in 2027 and 7.80 per cent government security maturing in 2020 were also quoted lower at Rs 96.92, Rs 96.00 and Rs 95.60, respectively.

The overnight call money rates ended lower at 8.20 per cent from yesterday's closing level of 8.95 per cent. It moved in range of 9.00 per cent and 8.00 per cent, respectively.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India ( RBI), under the Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF), purchased securities worth Rs 219.65 billion in 58-bids at the 1-day repo auction at a fixed rate of 8.00 per cent today morning, while it sold securities worth Rs 14.57 billion from 14-bids at the 1-day reverse repo auction at a fixed rate of 7.00 per cent yesterday evening.

Mortgage Apps Bounce Back despite slightly higher rates

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported this morning that its Composite index of the market, which measures the volume of mortgage loan applications, an increase of 1.9% on a basis-seasonally adjusted during the week ended July 4.   On an unadjusted basis the index declined 19% from the week was completed on 27 June.  Seasonal adjustments compensated for the celebration of Independence Day, which shortened the business week.

The refinance index increased 0.4% from the previous week while the market share of applications for refinancing fell from 53% to 52%.

Refinance Index vs 30 year fixed

Adjusted for seasonal variations in the purchase Index increased by 4% from a week earlier, but the unadjusted index was decrease of 17% and 10% lower than that in the same week in 2013.

Purchase Index vs 30 yr fixed

Both the contractual interest rate and the effective rate for fixed-rate mortgages (FRM) age 30 with consistent balances of $417,000 or less have increased during the week to an average of 4.32% to 4.28%.  Points increased from 0.14 to 0.16.

Version jumbo FRM for 30 years (balance of loans exceeding $ 417,000) 4.26% to 0.06 point fell to 4.24% 0.16 point.  The rate has increased since the previous week.

FRM thirty years backed by FHA saw an increase in the average rate of 3 basis points to 4.02%.  Points is passed to-0.03-0.33 and the effective rate was higher than a week earlier.

The 15-year FRM was the only product where the interest rate eased.  It had a rate of 3.40% average contract and 0.22 point, down 3.42 percent with 0.16 point.  The rate remained unchanged.

Rate mortgages adjustable (weapons) again had a share of 8% of all applications.  The average interest rate of contract for 5/1 arm is passed to 3.24% 3.21%, with points, passing to 0.31 0.33. The rate has increased since the previous period.

MBA data are collected through its weekly mortgage applications survey which has been conducted since 1990.  The survey covers more than 75 percent of all retail mortgage applications in the country.  Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrift.  Interest rates are quoted for loans with a loan-to-value ratio of 80 percent and is home to the departure tax.  Volume indices have a base period and value of March 16, 1990 = 100.

You can see a list of all ministerial reviews by clicking on the 'Reading of the last comments' option under the 'Community' menu.

Mortgage Rates Move Lower, Keeping Range Intact

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AppId is over the quota

Mortgage rates improved today.  The bonds that most directly affect rates got a boost from stock market weakness and ongoing European bond market strength.  Today's drop in rates is significant in that it preserves a range that's been intact since early May. 

The range in question is small in terms of rates--stretching only from 4.125% to 4.25%.  Most of the day-to-day movement takes place in the form of closing costs (because lenders tend to offer rates in .125% increments).  So today's most prevalent rate quotes are the same as yesterday's (4.25%), but with slightly lower closing costs.  This drop in closing costs equates to 0.03% in terms of effective rate.

As has so frequently been the case in 2014, any time we're inside a narrow range, borrowers who are inclined to float have more justification in doing so, provided they're ready to lock if rates move back to the higher end of the range.  On a cautionary note, while rates have adhered to this range for 2 months now, the visits to the lowest levels have been progressively higher.  This could indicate that the longer-term momentum is pointing very slightly higher, and we'd need to see a move below late June lows to rule that out.

Loan Originator Perspective

"We are firmly at 4.25% but I still think floating in the short term may be worth it. Just make sure your Lender can lock quickly if it starts to move upward." -Chris Marconi Vice President First Midwest Bank

"With stocks weaker for a second day in a row mortgage rates improved again amidst a quiet week in most respects as far as economic data releases are considered. Recent moves have not taken us out of the persistent range we've been in which tends to support a locking bias for those with short term time horizons. For those with longer time frames, a floating stance with a keen eye to the markets and your loan officer on speed dial may be in order." -Hugh W. Page, Sen. Mortgage Consultant, Capital Partners Mortgage

"I have favored floating since last Wednesday for everyone that missed locking before the payrolls data. If you followed that advice, todays pricing is the best we have seen since Tuesday. Weak data out of Europe and continued issues around the world(Ukraine, Iraq and now Israel) have all contributed to the improvements we saw today. If your lender reprices for the better today, and you are within 15 days of funding, you should consider locking. I think everyone else should continue to float if you can tolerate the risk." -Victor Burek, Open Mortgage

"Nice gains today, as rates continued to return to July 1st's lower levels.. There may be further room for improvement in store, as treasuries have outgained MBS the last few days. As of mid day, 4 lenders repriced better, with more likely on the way. Short term, floating looks like the play. Longer term trends still TBD, stay tuned." -Ted Rood, Senior Mortgage Planner, tedroodteam.com

"The range appears to have found its support at the high end and floating the last 2 days, has paid small dividends. Tomorrow there is the 10 yr Treasury Auction and a good auction could lead to further gains. A good auction is no guarantee, but I think rates being near their highs for the last month should make it attractive. Floating continues to be a good option." -Brent Borcherding, www.brentborcherding.com

Today's Best-Execution Rates

30YR FIXED - 4.25%
FHA/VA - 3.75%
15 YEAR FIXED -  3.375%
5 YEAR ARMS -  3.0-3.50% depending on the lender

Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

The hallmark of 2014 so far has been a disconcertingly narrow range in rates.  Too many market participants bet on rates going higher in 2014, and markets have punished that imbalance with a paradoxical move lower. As of June, rates were officially lower year-over-year, but that's due to rates' path higher in 2013.  The current path in 2014 remains sideways.  European markets continue to play a nagging role in the background, generally helping rates in the US remain lower than they otherwise might be.  From a wider point of view, we're in limbo, waiting for the first significant move away from the narrow range.  A rally into late May stood a chance to act as this break, but rates have since returned to what were previously the lower limits of the 2014 range. As always, please keep in mind that the rates discussed generally refer to what we've termed 'best-execution' (that is, the most frequently quoted, conforming, 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers, based not only on the outright price, but also 'bang-for-the-buck.'  Generally speaking, our best-execution rate tends to connote no origination or discount points--though this can vary--and tends to predict Freddie Mac's weekly survey with high accuracy.  It's safe to assume that our best-ex rate is the more timely and accurate of the two due to Freddie's once-a-week polling method).  Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily / MBS Live A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators. ... more

Why higher interest rates won't stall U.S. job growth

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AppId is over the quota

Fortune's Nin-Hai Tseng reports that as long as interest rates rise on positive economic news, as opposed to bad news, the economy will continue creating jobs at a decent pace.

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Birth rates hit record low for those under 25, still on the rise for those 40

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AppId is over the quota

The overall U.S. birth rate declined to an all-time low in 2011. Birth rates reached an all-time low among women in their teens and early 20s, while rising to the highest level in four decades among women in their early 40s. Pew Research's Gretchen Livingston and D'vera Cohn report.

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ECB issues forward guidance on rates

  The ECB cut both its benchmark and deposit rates in June European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi has said eurozone interest rates will stay at 0.15% for an "extended period" of time.

Mr Draghi was speaking after the ECB left rates on hold, a month after it cut them to help economic growth.

In June the bank cut its deposit rate from zero to -0.10% and its benchmark rate from 0.25% to 0.15%.

Mr Draghi added rate decisions would be taken every six weeks from January 2015 instead of monthly.

The ECB will also release minutes of the meetings of its General Council - the body which sets interest rates in the eurozone in the same way as the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee - for the first time in January.

It is the second time since Bank of England governor Mark Carney launched his policy of forward guidance last year that Mr Draghi has chosen to give guidance on eurozone interest rates himself.

The ECB president said interest rates will remain at their present level for an "extended period of time in view of the current outlook for inflation".

He added the ECB was "unanimous in its commitment" to using "unconventional instruments within its mandate".

June's cut in interest rates was aimed at encouraging banks to lend more to businesses and boost economic growth.

There had been concerns that the eurozone could slip into deflation, raising fears that consumers might spend even less because they would expect prices to fall in future months.

Figures on Monday showed inflation in the eurozone remained at 0.5% in June - within what Mr Draghi has called "the danger zone" below 1%.

Sluggish growth

Ahead of the ECB's decision, two separate surveys painted different pictures of eurozone economic activity.

Data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) suggested inflationary pressures in the eurozone reached a 25-month high in May.

The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge, published by the ECRI, rose to 95.3 in May from 94.0 in April.

Lakshman Achuthan, the ECRI's chief operating officer, said the data suggested eurozone inflation was "likely to bottom out in the coming months".

But a survey from economic analysts Markit suggested eurozone businesses grew at their slowest pace for six months in June.

Business activity in France - the currency bloc's second largest economy - shrank at the fastest pace in four months, while growth in the eurozone's biggest economy, Germany, also slowed.

However, Chris Williamson, Markit's chief economist, said there were reasons for optimism despite data that on first glance made "grim reading".

He noted that Markit's survey found new orders rising at their fastest rate in three years in June, suggesting growth could accelerate in the second half of the year.