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mardi 25 mai 2010

Euro: U.S. markets more than ever worried.



Keywords: interest rate, dollar, euro, U.S., EUROPE, ECB, EDF.

 Despite measures taken by European states to stabilize the euro area, the U.S. markets are still very concerned. The interbank distrust has never been high since July 2009.

Concern about banks has clearly given way to concern about the States. Although we have not yet reached the levels in September 2008 during the crisis of Lehman Brothers, but the information comes at a significant enough - Greek crisis, possible contagion Spanish ... - To consider. While central banks have strived during the subprime crisis, to deflate the London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor), which measures the rate of interbank lending in the short term for each of the major currencies, the U.S. Libor rate exceeded 0 5%. The highest since July 2009.
Moreover, the spread between that and the U.S. Libor Overnight index swaps, which measure stress on financial markets has increased from last Friday to point 0.0266 0.0284 point Monday. Put another way, U.S. banks are less and less confidence, lending rates to higher and higher, and markets are increasingly concerned over their solvency. Bad news for the economy across the Atlantic at a time when investors are fleeing the euro to take refuge with the dollar.

Fear of contagion Spanish:
And inevitably it poses a real problem for central banks in a context where unemployment is rising and where growth is still soft. 'This is an illustration of a new crisis of confidence which could be replaced by a new crisis of liquidity, "says Franklin Pichard, director of Barclays stock. U.S. markets fear the contagion following the restructuring of del'annonce Spanish savings banks are still wait-and even suspicious of the Greek settlement of the crisis they feel far from being resolved. "
For its part, the European Central Bank (ECB) has revived emergency measures to ensure that European banks refinance correctly. Thus, banks are increasingly asking for credit six months, a sign of rising tensions on the market. Another sign of the serious crisis of confidence in the euro area: the ECB has reactivated its currency swaps with major central banks including the Fed, to ensure a safe source of dollars.
If central banks may temporarily reduce the risk of default by injecting liquidity and lowering interest rates, they must quickly convince the effectiveness of the European project to end concerns about the public debt of the euro area. Otherwise the Libor could continue its march forward. As inflation.

France is once again a "good student":
"This is totally puzzling," says Franklin Pichard. While France is part of the "bad boys" on the deficit, as doubts persist about his ability to carry out its pension reform, the French bond yields were recorded on Monday its lowest level since 1991 ... . 'This is proof that France is now part, alongside Germany, values refuge to which investors turn. France benefits and what is commonly called a movement of flight to quality and a very low inflation, "says Director of Barclays stock.
What can this be attributed? "The markets believe that, unlike other countries in the euro area, France has announced on its ability to cope, including the possibility of increasing deficits in the Constitution. In addition, rating agencies have repeatedly reaffirmed that France has a highly developed industrial economic base, unlike Spain, for example, weighed down by real estate, "he says. If the downward trend of government bonds of long-term (or equivalent Treasury bonds) has to endure, according to Franklin Pichard, no doubt that the ratings agencies fail to monitor whether France and figure implements these measures .

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